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Key Points More than 70 microbial models have recently been developed to simulate soil carbon dynamics Diversity in model structures and parameters indicates uncertainty in translating current knowledge of microbial processes into models Data‐driven model development and parameterization are highly recommended to improve the prediction of microbial models 

Key Points A new semi‐analytical spin‐up (SASU) framework combines the default accelerated spin‐up method and matrix analytical algorithm SASU accelerates CLIM5 spin‐up by tens of times, becoming the fastest method to our knowledge SASU is applicable to most biogeochemical models and enables computationally costly study, for example, sensitivity analysis 

Abstract Large across‐model spread in simulating land carbon (C) dynamics has been ubiquitously demonstrated in model intercomparison projects (MIPs), and became a major impediment in advancing climate change prediction. Thus, it is imperative to identify underlying sources of the spread. Here, we used a novel matrix approach to analytically pin down the sources of across‐model spread in transient peatland C dynamics in response to a factorial combination of two atmospheric CO 2 levels and five temperature levels. We developed a matrix‐based MIP by converting the C cycle module of eight land models (i.e., TEM, CENTURY4, DALEC2, TECO, FBDC, CASA, CLM4.5 and ORCHIDEE) into eight matrix models. While the model average of ecosystem C storage was comparable to the measurement, the simulation differed largely among models, mainly due to inter‐model difference in baseline C residence time. Models generally overestimated net ecosystem production (NEP), with a large spread that was mainly attributed to inter‐model difference in environmental scalar. Based on the sources of spreads identified, we sequentially standardized model parameters to shrink simulated ecosystem C storage and NEP to almost none. Models generally captured the observed negative response of NEP to warming, but differed largely in the magnitude of response, due to differences in baseline C residence time and temperature sensitivity of decomposition. While there was a lack of response of NEP to elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) concentrations in the measurements, simulated NEP responded positively to eCO 2 concentrations in most models, due to the positive responses of simulated net primary production. Our study used one case study in Minnesota peatland to demonstrate that the sources of across‐model spreads in simulating transient C dynamics can be precisely traced to model structures and parameters, regardless of their complexity, given the protocol that all the matrix models were driven by the same gross primary production and environmental variables. 

Abstract. Future global changes will impact carbon (C) fluxes andpools in most terrestrial ecosystems and the feedback of terrestrial carboncycling to atmospheric CO2. Determining the vulnerability of C in ecosystems to future environmental change is thus vital for targeted land management and policy. The C capacity of an ecosystem is a function of its C inputs(e.g., net primary productivity – NPP) and how long C remains in the systembefore being respired back to the atmosphere. The proportion of C capacitycurrently stored by an ecosystem (i.e., its C saturation) provides informationabout the potential for long-term C pools to be altered by environmental andland management regimes. We estimated C capacity, C saturation, NPP, andecosystem C residence time in six US grasslands spanning temperature andprecipitation gradients by integrating high temporal resolution C pool andflux data with a process-based C model. As expected, NPP across grasslandswas strongly correlated with mean annual precipitation (MAP), yet Cresidence time was not related to MAP or mean annual temperature (MAT). We linksoil temperature, soil moisture, and inherent C turnover rates (potentiallydue to microbial function and tissue quality) as determinants of carbon residence time. Overall, we found that intermediates between extremes in moisture andtemperature had low C saturation, indicating that C in these grasslands maytrend upwards and be buffered against global change impacts. Hot and drygrasslands had greatest C saturation due to both small C inputs through NPPand high C turnover rates during soil moisture conditions favorable formicrobial activity. Additionally, leaching of soil C during monsoon eventsmay lead to C loss. C saturation was also high in tallgrass prairie due tofrequent fire that reduced inputs of aboveground plant material.Accordingly, we suggest that both hot, dry ecosystems and those frequentlydisturbed should be subject to careful land management and policy decisionsto prevent losses of C stored in these systems.

 

Abstract Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems 1,2 . How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain 1,3 , which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change 3,4 . It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss 5–7 . Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways 4,6,8–11 , microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes 12,13 . Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved 7,14,15 . Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate. 

Countries have long been making efforts by reducing greenhouse-gas emissions to mitigate climate change. In the agreements of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, involved countries have committed to reduction targets. However, carbon (C) sink and its involving processes by natural ecosystems remain difficult to quantify.

Using a transient traceability framework, we estimated country-level land C sink and its causing components by 2050 simulated by 12 Earth System Models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5.

The top 20 countries with highest C sink have the potential to sequester 62 Pg C in total, among which, Russia, Canada, USA, China, and Brazil sequester the most. This C sink consists of four components: production-driven change, turnover-driven change, change in instantaneous C storage potential, and interaction between production-driven change and turnover-driven change. The four components account for 49.5%, 28.1%, 14.5%, and 7.9% of the land C sink, respectively.

The model-based estimates highlight that land C sink potentially offsets a substantial proportion of greenhouse-gas emissions, especially for countries where net primary production (NPP) likely increases substantially and inherent residence time elongates.